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Subjunctive vs Indicative
French uses the indicative for whatever the sentence asserts as real, and the subjunctive for whatever it filters through doubt, possibility, emotion, or will. That single test decides every hard case: je pense qu’il vient (asserted → indicative) versus je ne pense pas qu’il vienne (assertion withdrawn → subjunctive).
The tricky part: the same verb can sit on either side of the line — negate it, question it, or weaken it, and the mood flips. Formation and the core trigger families live on the French subjunctive page.
In short
- Indicative = the sentence bets on the event being real: je pense que, il est probable que, je suis sûr que.
- Subjunctive = the sentence holds the event at arm’s length: je ne pense pas que, il est possible que, je ne suis pas sûr que.
- The trigger is not fixed — negating or questioning it flips the mood.
indicativesubjunctivetrigger· hover a highlighted word for its label
The certainty test
Before every que-clause, ask one question: does the main clause present what follows as real, or only as considered? Certainty is a scale, and French draws the line surprisingly high — probable is still certain enough for the indicative.
| Asserts it — indicative | Filters it — subjunctive |
|---|---|
| je pense que, je crois que, je trouve que | je ne pense pas que, je ne crois pas que |
| il est probable que | il est possible que, il se peut que |
| il me semble que | il semble que |
| je suis sûr que, il est certain que | je ne suis pas sûr que, il n’est pas certain que |
Penser, croire, trouver: the polarity switch
Affirmative, these verbs commit the speaker to a view of reality, so the indicative follows. Negated, they withdraw that commitment, and the subjunctive takes over.
In formal questions with inversion, the doubt returns and the subjunctive with it:
Penses-tu qu’il vienne ?
Everyday questions with est-ce que usually keep the indicative — and in relaxed conversation, many native speakers keep it even after je ne pense pas que. Careful writing and exams expect the subjunctive.
I think he’s coming tomorrow.
— Je pense qu’ asserts the coming as real, so vient stays indicative.
I don’t think he’s coming tomorrow.
— Je ne pense pas qu’ withdraws the assertion, so vienne is subjunctive.
Sûr and certain follow the same switch
Expressions of certainty behave exactly like penser: affirmative certainty asserts, negated or questioned certainty does not.
I’m sure the train is on time.
— Je suis sûr que presents the fact as settled; est is indicative.
I’m not sure the train is on time.
— Je ne suis pas sûr que opens a doubt, so soit is subjunctive.
The probability threshold: probable vs possible
Il est probable que counts as certain enough to assert, so the indicative follows — often a futur simple. Il est possible que merely opens an option, so the subjunctive follows. The same threshold explains the negatives: il n’est pas certain que and il est peu probable que fall below the line and take the subjunctive.
It will probably rain tomorrow.
— Il est probable qu’ sits above the threshold; pleuvra is indicative (futur simple).
It might rain tomorrow.
— Il est possible qu’ only raises the option; pleuve is subjunctive.
Il me semble que vs il semble que
With me, the speaker owns the judgment and states it — indicative. Without me, the sentence reports a floating impression that nobody vouches for — subjunctive.
It seems to me that this project is too ambitious.
— Il me semble que states the speaker’s own view; est is indicative.
It seems that this project is too ambitious.
— Il semble que reports an unowned impression; soit is subjunctive.
Après que vs avant que
Avant que always takes the subjunctive: the avant-event has not happened yet. Après que logically takes the indicative — the event really occurred — and that is the rule of careful, written French. In practice, the subjunctive after après que is extremely common, even among educated native speakers.
After he left, we tidied the room.
— Après qu’ points to a real past event, so careful French keeps the indicative est parti.
Before he leaves, give him the keys.
— Avant qu’ looks ahead to an unrealized event, so parte is subjunctive.
Le fait que
Le fait que names something that is true — and still usually takes the subjunctive, because the clause serves as a topic to react to rather than a statement being made. The indicative is possible when the sentence genuinely asserts the fact as new information:
Le fait qu’il est arrivé en retard explique tout.
The fact that she is absent worries me.
— Le fait qu’ frames the fact as a topic, so soit is subjunctive even though the absence is real.
Common mistakes
✗Je ne trouve pas que ce restaurant est cher.
✓Je ne trouve pas que ce restaurant soit cher.
Negated trouver no longer asserts the opinion, so standard French switches to the subjunctive — casual speech often keeps the indicative, but careful French does not.
✗Il est probable qu’ils soient déjà partis.
✓Il est probable qu’ils sont déjà partis.
Probable sits above the certainty threshold, so French asserts it with the indicative. Expressions below the threshold — il est possible que, il se peut que, il est peu probable que — drop to the subjunctive.
✗Je suis certain que nous ayons le temps.
✓Je suis certain que nous avons le temps.
Affirmative certainty states a fact, so the indicative follows. The subjunctive appears only when the certainty is negated or questioned: je ne suis pas certain que nous ayons le temps.
✗Il semble que le bus est déjà passé.
✓Il semble que le bus soit déjà passé.
Without me, il semble que reports an unverified impression and takes the subjunctive. Il me semble que — a judgment the speaker owns — keeps the indicative.
Check yourself
1 / 4Je ne crois pas que cette solution ___ la bonne.
2 / 4Il est probable qu’elle ___ raison.
3 / 4Il est possible qu’ils ___ en retard.
4 / 4Il me semble que tu ___ tort.
Frequently asked questions
Do you use the subjunctive after je ne pense pas que?
Yes, in standard French: je ne pense pas qu’il vienne. The negation withdraws the assertion, which triggers the subjunctive. In relaxed spoken French the indicative is common, but careful writing and exams expect the subjunctive.
Does il est probable que take the subjunctive or the indicative?
The indicative: il est probable qu’il pleuvra. French treats probable as certain enough to assert. The subjunctive starts below that threshold, with il est possible que, il se peut que, and il est peu probable que.
Is après que followed by the indicative or the subjunctive?
The traditional rule is the indicative, because the event really happened: après qu’il est parti. The subjunctive after après que is very common, even among native speakers, but formal French keeps the indicative — unlike avant que, which always takes the subjunctive.
What is the difference between il semble que and il me semble que?
Il me semble que states the speaker’s own judgment and takes the indicative: il me semble que tu as raison. Il semble que reports a general, unowned impression and normally takes the subjunctive: il semble que tu aies raison.
Memory tip
Ask whether the sentence signs its name under the que-clause as a fact. A confident yes — pense, crois, sûr, certain, probable — takes the indicative. Any hedge — negated belief, a question, mere possibility, a not-yet event — takes the subjunctive.
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